Case study 05 / Mining, flagship gold
No drilled resource to price. Honeycomb built a bid the buyer could make.
A buyer wanted to move on a flagship gold target before it had a compliant drilled resource. Honeycomb valued the geology on probability, benchmarked it to real regional deals, and set out three executable bid structures.
What Honeycomb did
Priced the geology
Honeycomb built a probability-weighted valuation across downside, base, and upside cases, anchored to surface results and an adjacent multi-million-ounce mine.
Set the price from real deals
Comparable regional transactions put the market at US$25-30/oz, clarifying how far the seller's expectation sat above evidence.
Gave the buyer three ways to bid
A staged earn-in, an upfront acquisition on milestones, and a royalty/NSR hybrid, each with risk, cost, and negotiating leverage.
The shift
Probability-weighted value anchored to geology and market evidence
Before: No compliant drilled resource
Comparable transactions at US$25-30/oz
Before: Seller expectation without a benchmark
A costed bid and structure the buyer could put forward
Before: A geological concept
Outcome
The buyer arrived with a geological concept and left with a number, a structure to stage against drilling, and a clear view of the exit buyer.
An anonymised example of work done with Honeycomb. Figures describe this case and are not a general performance guarantee.
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